Market Update - January 2010
Well, finally some encouraging numbers for the overall stability of our market (although for buyers still playing the “wait for the bottom” game – maybe not so encouraging!).
The Aspen / Glenwood MLS posted 156 sales for the month of December, the most in all of 2009 and 75% up year on year from December 2008. The low point in sales volumes occurred in March of 2009 with just 65 sales.
In addition to this, the trend of declining inventory continued with supply dropping to its lowest point since May, 2008. With the current supply at 26 months, we still clearly have a way to go to get back to what is considered a balanced market (with under 10 months supply), but we are in a much better position than last March which peaked at an astronomical 75 months!
Like all economic news these days, these encouraging numbers for the Aspen area real estate are tempered by the large number of distressed properties and foreclosures that continue to hit the market.
With decreasing inventory, buyers may see increased competition for the choice properties. For sellers, while these numbers hold some promise, the reality for the time being is that they are going to have to compete with Bank owned properties and short sales – no easy task.
Aspen Area and Roaring Fork Valley Market Update for December 2009
Well, finally some encouraging numbers for the overall stability of our market (although for buyers still playing the "wait for the bottom" game - maybe not so encouraging!).
The Aspen / Glenwood MLS posted 156 sales for the month of December, the most in all of 2009 and 75% up year on year from December 2008. The low point in sales volumes occurred in March of 2009 with just 65 sales.
In addition to this, the trend of declining inventory continued with supply dropping to its lowest point since May, 2008. With the current supply at 26 months, we still clearly have a way to go to get back to what is considered a balanced market (with under 10 months supply), but we are in a much better position than last March which peaked at an astronomical 75 months!
Like all economic news these days, these encouraging numbers for the Aspen area real estate are tempered by the large number of distressed properties and foreclosures that continue to hit the market.
With decreasing inventory, buyers may see increased competition for the choice properties.
For sellers, while these numbers hold some promise, the reality for the time being is that they are going to have to compete with Bank owned properties and short sales - no easy task.
November 2009 Stats – The good and the bad..
Nationally, it seems like we are hearing more and more positive news about the economy and trends are beginning to lead us to believe that the economy is heading in the right direction.
Finally, on the local level, there are some trends appearing that may be early signs of a stabilization in the real estate market.
The principal indicator that suggests this improvement is the number of new listings on the market.
Starting at the end of 2007, more and more new listings started to hit the market at the same time that sales started to slow, leading to a huge oversupply that peaked in March 2009 at 75 months (6 months is considered to be a stable market!).
The inventory is finally declining as the number of new listings slows. Since August of this year, the number of new listings has declined each month along with the overall inventory, dropping back to the lowest level since May of 2008.
I supect that there are several reasons for this. Firstly, at this point most of the sellers who are not really serious have seen the writing on the wall and pulled their listing. Secondly, we have been in this recession long enough that most of the people who have been forced to try and sell have already acted, while the people who are managing to ride out the recession have hung on long enough and will probably be o.k.
Still of concern is the fact that sales continue to be very slow and while the decline in inventory is helping to swing the market back to something of an eqilibrium, sales will still need to pick up significantly to find a truly balanced market.
As I work with buyers, I have noticed that the selection of properties is not as exciting as it was a few months back, There are certainly a good number of foreclosed properties that are still working their way through the system and will be hitting the market in the next few months.
For sellers, it is still a difficult time because of the lack of sales and a serious seller simply has to outshine the competition on price.
Who knows what the future holds, but the trends are at least suggesting a move back towards a balanced market.
(The data referenced in this article is taken from the Aspen / Glenwood Springs MLS which includes properties from Aspen all the way to Western Garfield County.
October Results Just In – Sales Decline Slowing?
Land Title has just released the sales data for October and by the numbers seems to reflect the recent headlines in the local newspapers – “Decline Slowing”. But, how accurate is this really?According to the numbers sales are only down 40% with this month last year when earlier in the year sales were down closer to 75%. The reason is simple; by October, 2008, the slow down was in full force and so now , a year later, it appears that things are getting better. The reality… Sales have been fairly static for about a year now and year on year they are trending at 71% less than 2008 sales. The bottom line, high inventory and low sales numbers continue to favor buyers.
- NUMBER1EXPERT™ 
